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Electronics Industry Outlook 2010
Source:PCB技術網  date:2010-05-10  Clicks:3161

The upcoming 2010, all analysts have brought a great challenge ─ ─ it is almost impossible to predict. Strictly speaking, it is not entirely unpredictable, but in the past year disorder economic environment, a great impact on the industry; addition to the spending power of the recession in major markets, but after after the financial tsunami, the company is expected to begin to consolidation, both for the coming year bring great global electronics industry variables.

"No one can accurately predict the trend in 2010," Analogic Tech's president and CEO and CTO Richard K. Williams said. Analogic is developing large-size LED-backlit LCD TV drivers used. Faced with this hot, high voice, but penetration does not exceed 2% of the market, Williams believes that in 2011 the use of 30-inch LED backlit TV penetration was up more than 24%, but in 2010, "I can only that it might be between 2% to 10%, no one can say for sure. "

2010 vagaries reason, a large part of the reason is that many of the world's major economies outlook remains uncertain, including Taiwan. However, since the second half of 2009, semiconductor and electronics industry has begun to show some of the specific areas of the recovery force, including touch, LED backlit subjects related to persistent fever, increase in capital expenditure, it seems notice the industry has bottomed out, indeed to recovery direction.

(NS), vice president and general manager of National Semiconductor Asia Pacific Yumin Hong pointed out that despite the global semiconductor revenue will show negative growth for two consecutive years, but YOY 2009 fourth quarter is expected to start growing (iSuppli), which can be considered in the semiconductor industry signal recovery.

From an economic perspective, the latest data show that before the deadline, DGBAS estimate of China's GDP growth in 2009 was still to -4.04%. Compared to 2007, 5.07%; 2008 of 0.06%; 2009 economic constitution remains to be continuing to strengthen Taiwan's trade performance for actual reinforcement.

Research director of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research 楊家彥 six points out that, in a financial crisis led to the unprecedented economic situation in Taiwan: a significant decline in the same time, the trade surplus has grown at an unprecedented magnitude. The main reason causing this strange phenomenon, since the last crisis in oil prices, imports continued reduction, but after the oil crisis, due to the delay in the recovery of the consumer market, thereby inhibiting imports.

"In 2009, our export growth forecast decline of 11.9%; import rate of decline is expected to reach 14.65 percent," Yangjia Yan said. This explains why the trade surplus has continued to expand in this recession.

However, due to the trade performance in the second half of 2009 there are signs of stabilization, so Yangjia Yan predicted that China's GDP growth rate of the year is expected upward revision to around -3%. However, due to sluggish domestic demand, fixed investment has declined significantly (2009 estimated at -17.8%), plus many policy face uncertainties and other factors, the situation is still difficult to predict the ultimate growth.

Similarly, the electronics industry is also faced with the dual pressures of sluggish domestic demand and foreign trade recession, the urgent need to find new applications and emerging consumer markets.

However, in this turbulent economic environment over the past year, small amounts of electricity within the electronics industry, LED backlight, e-books, smart phones and even 3D TV industry-specific topics, such as some of the heat continues to increase, these popular applications also demonstrate out including display, photovoltaic, drivers, and other technical areas system-level design of Taiwan's electronics industry specializes in the shaping of a new industry, they all play a key role, but also gives our industry relative to master new market opportunities.

FPD ─ ─ hair rise in profit in the new era of the kinetic energy

As the technology matures, panel prices continue to decline in the past to the rapidly expanding market as the main strategy of flat panel display (FPD) industry has entered a growth phase micro, many panel makers have faced the dilemma of losses; especially for harsh industrial imminent Taiwanese manufacturers to compete, how to develop new technologies and new applications in order to stimulate new business opportunities, become the key to the future growth of the flat panel industry.

In the panel continued downward pressure on prices, estimated over the next 10 years, including a 3D display, touch (touch), LED backlighting, and electronic paper (e-paper) and other emerging display technology, FPD industry will be the most noteworthy topic. In fact, the future growth momentum LCD panel-related applications will come from value-added new applications ─ ─ including books, touch and LED backlight and other green technologies ─ ─ This is not only the key to the next wave driven panel prices rebound, Taiwanese manufacturers also focus on future direction.

"The future of large-size panels related applications growth momentum will be 'value-added' products driven" Information Institute for Information Industry (MIC), senior industry analyst and senior manager Zhoushi Xiong said. Due to the large size of the image display panel specifications have been able to fully meet the needs of most consumers, coupled with the relatively low panel prices have fallen, so, including LED backlight, 3D, touch and green technology is the future of large-size development trends of the panel, which went LED backlight largest growing strength, will have a direct impact on the development of the panel supply. "

LED backlight: Future TV Trends

In green technology trends, future applications in LED lighting and LCD TV backlighting as the fastest growing, particularly in the LCD panel backlight is the most power-hungry part, how to use LED with environmental protection, long life and low power consumption advantages, equipped with better luminous efficiency of the light guide plate backlight, becoming green panel technology development priority.

"The next three years, the LCD screen with LED backlight penetration rate will exceed 50 percent, the most widely used aggressively to replace the cold cathode fluorescent lamp (CCFL)," ON Semiconductor (On Semiconductor) LED general lighting and power marketing and Systems Engineering Director Laurent Jenck forecasts.

Jenck LED backlight applications referred to above refers to 4-inch LCD screen, including GPS, digital photo frames, LCD TVs, laptops, netbooks and other products. "We can see that in the energy-saving trend driven, LED backlight continue to extend its sphere of influence, currently 4 inches below 100% of the mobile device screen is basically using LED lighting, then, one after another around the world with halogen or mercury disabled lighting fixtures, LED lighting and backlight estimated trend will be more alarming pace. "

Contributed to the rapid development of LED backlight Another major reason is the LED grain prices fell, with South Korea's Samsung Electronics pioneered the use of edge-lit backlight (Edge backlight) technology to develop large-size LED-backlit LCD TVs, many Asian countries are considering following suit expected in 2010 to spur the growth of LED backlight products.

"Because the design is simple and relatively low cost Asian countries is expected to be the first to use edge-lit backlight technology," Analogic Tech's Richard K. Williams said. Edge-lit backlight technology can be said to help cut LED-backlit LCD TV pilot technology, compared with another direct type (direct backlight) technology, edge-lit technology design is relatively simple, and direct-technology because each requires precise control brightness and color region, so that not only the need to use large grains, and more complex circuit design.

Williams estimates that in 2011 the global LED-backlit LCD TV market, up from about 4,000 ten thousand, accounting for 24% of all LCD TVs. Which collected about 16.6 million direct-technology department; edge-lit technology is approximately 1,234 million. However, estimates in this market, in 2011 adopted the direct type backlight technology drive the semiconductor market size of up to $ 264 million; while mining part of edge-lit technology, compared to $ 28 million.

Because the LED backlight can achieve high-quality ultra-thin TVs, Hsieh, vice president of DisplaySearch Greater China, said, LED backlit LCD TV with increasingly competitive, estimated in 2010 the proportion of LED backlight panel shipments will increase to 44%. the traditional CCFL and EEFL lamp shipments will be from 72% penetration rate in 2009 fell to 56%. MIC is also expected in 2010 equipped with LED-backlit LCD panel overall proportion will exceed three percent.

A new generation of lighting: Energy conservation is the main appeal

In 2010, another highlight is the development of energy-saving solid-state lighting. LED lighting has penetrated many general lighting, including street lighting, public lighting, commercial buildings, building exterior lighting, billboards, landscape lighting, lamps, cabinet lighting included, it can be said that all the lighting field, are now facing the LED forward.

LED is also currently one of the fastest growing semiconductor market, according to Strategies Unlimited estimates that in 2013 the total effective LED market (TAM) will reach $ 12.4 billion, five-year compound annual growth rate of up to 19.3%.

This is the LED related applications attracts industry into the main reason. At present energy-efficient LED lighting is driving it deep general livelihood applications. "We have redesigned the LED module uses a previously using a combination of halogen lamp transformer, the result is to create a power consumption of only 1/4, but the luminous efficiency is more than three times higher than the product, weight is significantly reduced, "Semiconductor's Jenck said.

"Many countries and urban environmental policy requiring all street lights have been phased switch to LED bulbs to phase out high-energy high-pressure sodium street lights, street lights hoping to enhance energy efficiency," NS's Yumin Hong said. Ultimately, with energy-efficient LED lighting, will be expected to families stationed in the workplace and phasing out incandescent and compact fluorescent tubes.

Indeed, in the general-purpose lighting, LED has shown enormous potential. Taiwan is a major LED producers. In the LED industry layout, already have from upstream epitaxy, midstream grain to complete industrial chain advantage downstream modules and packages, the next major task, you must focus on the development of emerging markets, for large-scale setting projects, such as roads or architectural lighting, accelerate the expansion of applications.

IEK namely that "the majority of the Chinese mainland have access domestic market and brand advantages, as Taiwan's west mainland production lines set up front, the development of cross-strait policy of competing favorable conditions." Thus, from the second half of last year, Taiwan's main LED in the upstream firms have also entered the mainland market. Formosa Epitaxy epitaxial plant will be located on the mainland, the initial planning 50 machines, its production capacity will far exceed the company's existing capacity. UMC will build from the LED epitaxy in Shandong, packaged into a complete supply chain lighting applications.

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